Il Young Jeong
Research Professor_Institute of Social Sciences_Sogang University
Dialogue has long been missing on the peninsula, while the number of armed protests between the two Koreas only continues to increase. This article criticizes the South Korean government's policy of simply "patience" without any alternative plans and proposes a simultaneous suspension of North Korea's nuclear testing and South Korea-U.S. joint drills.
Can we call waiting for North Korea’s next nuclear test a ‘strategy’?
Since the beginning of 2022, the South Korean government and media have been working themselves up predicting when North Korea will conduct a nuclear test and guessing at dates.
For example, On September 28th, 2022, the National Intelligence Service reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee that North Korea could conduct a nuclear test between October 16th and November 7th. The report concluded that North Korea was likely to conduct a nuclear test in the time between China's 20th Party Congress and the U.S. midterm elections.
We have seen a repeating pattern of emphasis on phrases like "soon" and "this time" implying the seeming guarantee of a "next" test, all without any sort of evaluation or analysis of the previous nuclear test. At some point, we became accustomed to waiting for North Korea's next provocation.
What is the role of the state? Is it the role of the state to wait for North Korea's nuclear test and to parrot the slogan, "the ROK-U.S. combined defense is as strong as ever" when a test does happen? The Korean people want a government that can prevent nuclear tests and establish a tangible peace, not a government that predicts what day North Korea will conduct its tests.
The Korean Peninsula should be declared a "peace zone"
The situation amongst Korea’s neighbors is unstable. In fact, it's more unstable than ever. In late 2022, strategic competition between the U.S. and China has intensified since China held its 20th party congress and the U.S. midterm elections ended. There are not many cases where peace has been established on the Korean Peninsula during a time when the U.S. and China were competing. Conversely, when U.S.-China relations improved, dialogue on the Korean Peninsula was able to advance.
In addition to US-China tensions, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has worsened US-Russia relations, and Japan is pushing to strengthen its military capabilities with an emphasis on "second-strike capability". With competition between the US and China heating up, Japan and Russia are also adding to the stormy atmosphere surrounding the Korean Peninsula.
South Korea is at the center of the volatile situation on the Korean Peninsula. This is not the time to sit idly by waiting for and predicting North Korea’s next nuclear test. Now we must act to prevent any country from pursuing ‘strategic adventures’ on the Korean Peninsula. I suggest that South Korea first clearly declare the Korean Peninsula to be a "peace zone" and proactively respond to any challenges to this declaration. In particular, South Korea should work to encourage the US and China to support the "Korean Peninsula peace zone.”
The U.S. and China are engaged in a fierce strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region. However, both the U.S. and China have opened the way for mutual cooperation on the Korean Peninsula. For both the US and China, protecting peace on the Korean peninsula is not a matter of choice. Both countries, including China, must work together to fulfill their responsibilities and duties for peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Let’s freeze North Korean nuclear testing and South Korea-U.S. joint drills
Are we properly prepared for changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula? I, for one, think that our government is not properly responding to the developing crisis on the peninsula. The government has failed to prevent North Korea's armed provocations before they happen, and - as a result - instability on the Korean Peninsula is increasing.
While the idea of declaring the Korean Peninsula a “peace zone” seems in some ways quite reasonable, it is hard to overlook the question of whether such an act is actually possible in real life. In the end, we must find a way to move away from the current structure of power-to-power confrontation on the Korean Peninsula. What then, are the measures we need to take to declare a peace zone on the peninsula?
I suggest that North Korea stop its WMD-related provocations, such as nuclear tests and ICBM launches, while South Korea and the US should cease ROK-US joint military drills. This would stop the mutual dilemma of military confrontation and could be a reasonable choice for building the environment necessary for a future peace zone.
Apart from recognizing North Korea as a nuclear power, the reality of North Korea's possession of and ability to deploy nuclear weapons is already accepted by the international community. Now, North Korea is trying to miniaturize and upgrade its nuclear weapons and expand the range of its missile strikes. North Korea has taken a step further, legislating under what conditions it would use nuclear weapons, including not ruling out the option for preemptive nuclear attacks. Eventually, simply waiting will bring us back around to a greater security crisis.
For Korea, peace on the Korean Peninsula is a matter of national survival. However, we are helpless against North Korea's armed provocations. We must choose to put an end to any further provocations or conflicts. I urge the South Korean government to act as an active peacemaker, rather than waiting for North Korea’s next nuclear test and continuing its aimless "patience strategy".
*IL-Young Jeong is a research professor at Sogang University in Seoul. His key research interests include North Korea's social control system, inter-Korean relations, and peace on the Korean Peninsula.
*This article is a column published in OhmyNews. http://omn.kr/20ylt
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