Il Young Jeong
Research Professor_Institute of Social Science_Sogang University
In recent years, global conflicts and crises have continued unabated. The strategic competition between the United States and China has expanded into a global conflict structure, not just in Asia. Adding to this are the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the Israel-Hamas conflict, making for a tumultuous international landscape.
The conflict in international politics is leading to new tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Recently, the close ties between North Korea and Russia have heightened tensions on the peninsula. In June, North Korea and Russia declared a "comprehensive strategic partnership" during a summit. As North Korea-Russia relations strengthen, the strategic calculations of neighboring countries around the Korean Peninsula are becoming more complex.
This article analyzes the changes in the Korean Peninsula's situation due to Russia's southward advance and explores alternatives for peace on the peninsula.
Russia Has Returned
Since the Soviet Union handed over the Korean War to China, neither the Soviet Union nor its successor, Russia, has been treated as a direct party on the Korean Peninsula. Even in the Six-Party Talks aimed at resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, Russia was more of a bystander. Perhaps Russia itself did not intend to engage directly in Northeast Asia.
Now, Russia has returned, advancing southward onto the Korean Peninsula via its relationship with North Korea. On June 19, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin visited North Korea for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and signed the "Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation".
The North Korea-Russia Treaty contains shocking provisions that exceed our expectations. Article 4 of the treaty stipulates that "if either party is subjected to armed attack by a single state or multiple states and falls into a state of war, the other party will provide military and other assistance with all available means without delay, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter and the laws of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation."
North Korea and Russia also established grounds (Articles 10 and 16) to neutralize international sanctions against North Korea and decided to build systems (Article 8) to enhance mutual defense capabilities. This restores a strong relationship reminiscent of the past alliance treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union.
The Reconfiguration of International Politics on the Korean Peninsula Due to Russia's Southward Advance
Since China's intervention in the Korean War in October 1950, Russia has ceded leadership in Northeast Asia to China. The situation on the Korean Peninsula has fluctuated based on US-China relations, and North Korea has attempted to resolve its issues on the peninsula through its relationships with the US and China. Now, a "status change" is occurring in the existing Northeast Asian dynamics. Russia has emerged as a new actor in Northeast Asian international politics, based on its relationship with North Korea.
China is reacting more actively to Russia's southward advance than any other country. The fact that South Korea and China held a 2+2 diplomatic and security dialogue in Seoul on June 18, despite strained relations, is significant. The stagnation in the seemingly imminent restoration of North Korea-China relations appears to be related to the rapid rapprochement between North Korea and Russia. China's lack of response to North Korea's requests for economic cooperation may well have been a warning to North Korea for getting too close to Russia.
Japan is also responding sensitively to Russia's southward advance. More than we might think, Japan is tense about Russia's southward move. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has continually emphasized a North Korea-Japan summit. Given the restored state of the US-Japan-South Korea relationship, his emphasis on a North Korea-Japan summit seemed somewhat out of place. In retrospect, Japan's push for a North Korea-Japan summit appears to be a countermeasure against Russia's southward advance. From Japan's perspective, engaged in a territorial dispute with Russia over the Kuril Islands, Russia's southward advance is a change threatening its national security.
The United States is also closely watching the regional changes following the North Korea-Russia summit. On June 19, a US State Department spokesperson commented that "the deepening cooperation between North Korea and Russia is a matter of significant concern." Accordingly, the US is emphasizing the US-South Korea and US-Japan alliances to maintain its leadership in Korean Peninsula international politics. However, the status change caused by Russia's southward advance will undoubtedly be perceived as a challenging task for the US. Especially with the upcoming US presidential election in November, the results could plunge Northeast Asian international politics into another turmoil.
We Should Pursue Practical and Peace Diplomacy
In response to the North Korea-Russia declaration of a "comprehensive strategic partnership," the South Korean government's measure was to reconsider military support to Ukraine. On June 21, South Korea's National Security Advisor Cho Tae-yong announced that the government would "reconsider the issue of military support to Ukraine" in response to the North Korea-Russia treaty. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned against this, saying that "military support to Ukraine would be a big mistake," displaying an agitated demeanor.
Warnings that South Korea's full commitment to the US-Japan-South Korea alliance, deteriorating relations with China and Russia, and escalating tensions between the two Koreas would reinforce a confrontational structure around the Korean Peninsula have been persistently raised. As these concerns have become a reality, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's mention of military support to Ukraine to pressure Russia is disappointing and belated diplomacy.
The changes in the Korean Peninsula situation brought about by Russia are certainly a crisis, but we can lead new changes depending on our response. Above all, we need to go beyond one-sided diplomacy relying solely on the US alliance and pursue practical diplomacy through multilateral diplomacy and peace diplomacy to rebuild peace on the Korean Peninsula. In particular, we should restore relations with China, which finds Russia's southward advance burdensome, and strengthen South Korea-China cooperation on the Korean Peninsula issue.
North Korea is trying to create tensions on the Korean Peninsula and expand its influence amidst the US-China strategic competition and US-Russia conflicts. The Yoon administration's hardline policy towards North Korea plays into North Korea's strategy. The government should not respond emotionally to North Korea's provocations but rather lead the situation with cool-headed judgment.
Especially regarding the distribution of leaflets by anti-North Korea groups, which threatens the safety of our citizens not only in the border areas but also in the capital region, the government should take a clear stance against it and take visible measures against groups that violate this. If the government cannot handle the conflict between the two Koreas, the National Assembly should step in to take measures to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
*IL-Young Jeong is a research professor at Sogang University in Seoul. His key research interests include North Korea's social control system, inter-Korean relations, and peace on the Korean Peninsula.
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