Il Young Jeong
Research Professor_Institute of Social Science_Sogang University
Recent media coverage has been dominated by reports of North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia. In response, the South Korean government has hinted at the possibility of providing lethal weapons to Ukraine. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration in South Korea is currently facing a crisis, with public support plummeting to around 20%.
From the perspective of the embattled Yoon administration, which is even facing discussions of impeachment, the news of North Korea's troop dispatch could be seen as a last-ditch lifeline for political survival. However, this move poses a dangerous gamble, jeopardizing the lives of South Korean citizens and potentially accelerating the downfall of the Yoon government. Why is this so?
North Korea's Participation in the Ukraine War Becomes a Reality
On October 18, South Korea's National Intelligence Service(NIS) announced that North Korea had dispatched over 1,500 special forces troops to the Russia-Ukraine war starting on October 8. The NIS stated, "While closely monitoring North Korean military movements, we detected the transport of North Korean special forces to Russian territory via Russian naval vessels between October 8 and 13, confirming North Korea's entry into the conflict.“
The NIS further explained, "The North Korean troops dispatched to Russia are currently stationed with Russian military units in the Far Eastern regions, including Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk. They are expected to be deployed to the front lines once they complete their acclimatization training.“
In connection with this development, the government reportedly sent an intelligence delegation led by First Deputy Director Hong Jang-won of the NIS to Belgium for briefings and discussions with NATO and EU officials regarding North Korea's troop movements to Russia.
On October 28, Sabrina Singh, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary, stated in a briefing, "Approximately 10,000 North Korean troops are believed to be deployed in eastern Russia for training, with some already moving closer to Ukraine." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented, "So far, North Korean troops have not participated in combat. They are preparing for engagement near Kursk.“
Despite ongoing debates about the nature and scale of North Korea’s troop deployment, it has become an established fact that North Korea has sent military forces to the Ukraine war. The pressing question now is how North Korea's deployment will impact the Korean Peninsula and how the South Korean government should respond.
Heading Towards War with Russia Following North Korea
The South Korean government is showing excessive concern over North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia. However, it needs to take a step back and assess the situation calmly. While responding to North Korea's military actions within the framework of the Korean Armistice is understandable, making Russia an adversary is an entirely different matter.
President Yoon Suk-yeol, in a phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on October 29, stated, "Our government will not overlook the military alliance between North Korea and Russia that threatens our security," and pledged to "take effective, step-by-step countermeasures while closely observing the battlefield situation." President Yoon had also indicated during the South Korea-Poland summit on October 24 that the government might consider providing lethal weapons to Ukraine.
During the parliamentary audit by the National Assembly’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee on October 24, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yong was asked by Representative Cha Ji-ho, "Do we consider Russia an enemy state?" to which he replied, "We have not done so, but it is increasingly becoming so." This response is highly inappropriate coming from the head of diplomacy, who should be actively responding to the strengthening North Korea-Russia ties.
The Yoon administration is now engaging in a dangerous gamble by potentially following North Korea into Ukraine and risking involvement in a war with Russia. What is the purpose of such a war?
In this context, Representative Han Ki-ho of the People Power Party stirred controversy when he suggested to Shin Won-sik, Director of the Presidential Office's National Security Office, via a text message, "If cooperation with Ukraine allows, it would be good to bomb and launch missile strikes on North Korean units, causing damage, and then use this damage for psychological warfare against North Korea." Director Shin responded, "I’ll look into it carefully." Is this not a perilous idea that seeks to leverage the situation in Ukraine for issues on the Korean Peninsula?
President Yoon’s Risky Gamble: A Boomerang Hastening His Downfall
Public support for the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has fallen into the 20% range. The Korean people’s outrage continues over President Yoon’s governance, which they see as destructive to democracy, and First Lady Kim Keon-hee’s alleged intervention in state affairs. The economy, mired in stagnation, shows no signs of recovery. To the Yoon administration, cornered on all sides, North Korea’s troop deployment issue might seem like the last lifeline. However, this risky gamble is likely to become a self-inflicted blunder.
Contrary to the government's intent, making Russia an adversary would only strengthen the military alliance between North Korea and Russia. Is South Korea not, in effect, reinforcing the North Korea-Russia alliance while claiming to curb Russia’s military support to North Korea? If Russia ends up intervening in Korean Peninsula conflicts alongside North Korea, regional tensions would escalate. The impact on South Korea’s economy, highly dependent on international trade, would be severe. This is why this military adventurism is likely to backfire on the Yoon administration.
Even within the conservative camp, concerns about Yoon’s risky gamble are not negligible. Kim Dae-jung, former editor-in-chief of the influential conservative newspaper Chosun Ilbo, expressed apprehension that South Korea’s response might look like “a proxy war between Koreans on European soil” or a showcase of hostile inter-Korean confrontation.
Kim also pointed out the grave issue that “our lethal weapons might inevitably end up ‘killing’ Russian soldiers,” emphasizing that “such a scenario implies entering a hostile relationship with Russia or its people,” adding that “military conflict or hostility with Russia at this time is not a desirable security stance.”
In the end, if the South Korean government intervenes in the Russia-Ukraine war under the pretext of North Korea’s deployment, it would only accelerate the downfall of the Yoon administration.
The National Assembly Must Curb the Yoon Administration’s Reckless Actions
The National Assembly has put forward three resolutions related to North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia (proposed by Kim Young-bae, Na Kyung-won, and Kim Gun). However, resolutions alone are insufficient to rein in the Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s reckless actions. There are already discussions about exploring a deployment to Ukraine through means that bypass the National Assembly’s dispatch approval authority as stipulated in Article 60 of the South Korean Constitution.
Everyone needs to regain their composure. The media must exercise extreme caution when addressing security issues and should not be swayed by psychological warfare originating from Ukraine. The National Assembly must urgently create and implement legislative measures that can concretely check the government in its handling of inter-Korean relations and external military actions.
The Yoon administration must also regain its composure. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) should remain faithful to its role as an intelligence agency. Any further issue-making risks being seen as political interference. The Yoon administration should carefully reflect on what it can do for peace on the Korean Peninsula, instead of using security issues as a tool for domestic political survival.
*IL-Young Jeong is a research professor at Sogang University in Seoul. His key research interests include North Korea's social control system, inter-Korean relations, and peace on the Korean Peninsula.
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