*The Yoon government's denuclearization strategy is unclear. In fact, one might even say that the Yoon administration simply has no explicit denuclearization strategy. ⓒiStock
Il Young Jeong
Research Professor_Institute of Social Sciences_Sogang University
At this very moment, North Korea's nuclear capabilities are advancing and its missile range is expanding. Currently, the Korean government seems less willing to talk than the previous governments. The Yoon Suk Yeol government does not seem to have the power, ability, or will to solve the North Korean nuclear issue. This article is an appeal to and expression of my anger against South and North Korean leaders alike who are held hostage by nuclear games on the peninsula.
The sanctions regime against North Korea has collapsed
There are a few key clearly identifiable factors behind the thaw in inter-Korean relations in 2018. First, North Korea’s five ‘neighbors’ (South Korea, the US, China, Russia, and Japan) all participated in the U.N. sanctions on North Korea and established a strong sanctions regime against North Korea. At the same time, the US and North Korea denuclearization negotiations and inter-Korean dialogue played complementary roles.
However, the Korean Peninsula today is in a seemingly opposite situation from 2018. Intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition and the war in Ukraine are reducing avenues for possible multilateral cooperation to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. With the U.S. leading economic sanctions against China and Russia, it seems difficult for the international community to jointly respond to North Korea's nuclear provocations.
Since the collapse of US-DPRK talks in Hanoi in 2019, North Korea has emphasized diplomatic policies of "head-on problem-solving" and "an independent economy” and refused to hold dialogue between the two Koreas and with the United States. Eventually, the US-DPRK summit-led process of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula came to a stop. Rather, has become a ‘vicious cycle’.
What does it mean that inter-Korean dialogue has disappeared, and the sanctions regime has collapsed? It means that it has become more difficult to respond to North Korea's additional nuclear tests. The reason why South Korea and the U.S. have responded to North Korea's recent provocations with military responses is because they do not have a proper way to respond beyond military options. The problem is that if these military actions repeat, the possibility of physical clashes between the two sides in the West Sea or along the inter-Korean border will also likely increase.
North Korea, stop holding the Korean people hostage in your nuclear games!
North Korea is threatening the South Korean people with nuclear weapons. On September 8th last year, the North Korean Supreme People's Assembly wrote into law the five conditions under which the North would use nuclear weapons. The most shocking inclusion was the allowance for using nuclear weapons not only in defensively but potentially even preemptively. Even in the pragmatic world of international politics, the move borders on blackmail designed to take the entire peninsula hostage.
Legislating the acceptable use of nuclear weapons marks a total overturn of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jeong-il's promises to not only denuclearize the Korean Peninsula but also to rule out the option of preemptive nuclear attack. Considering how the North Korean regime’s ruling ideology explicitly emphasizes the sanctity of the teachings of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, this act is akin to the regime rejecting one of its founding principles.
In 1992, Kim Il-sung agreed to denuclearization in the inter-Korean ‘Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’. Kim Jeong-il also repeatedly vowed to pursue denuclearization and to prohibit the use preemptive nuclear strikes in his negotiations with the US and at six-party talks. By contrast, Chairman Kim Jeong-un has destroyed his predecessors’ denuclearization promises and even gone so far as to declare North Korea a nuclear power and legislate potential preemptive nuclear strikes.
North Korea insists that its nuclear weapons are justified as self-defense. However, there is no way to see the North’s recent behavior as anything but a threat to peace on the Korean Peninsula with the Korean people held hostage.
A question for the unresponsive Yoon Suk Yeol administration. Do you want to go to war?
The South Korean government is also blindly following along with the North’s nuclear games. The Yoon government's denuclearization strategy is unclear. In fact, one might even say that the Yoon administration simply has no explicit denuclearization strategy.
The Yoon Suk Yeol government has presented its so-called "the Audacious Initiative" and emphasizes the positive cycle of improved inter-Korean relations and North Korea's denuclearization, all on the basis of a strong US-ROK alliance. However, it’s hard to call this a clear 'denuclearization strategy'. The policy is nothing more than emphasizing a positive cycle in inter-Korean relations without any actual concrete denuclearization policy.
The South Korean government is responding to North Korea's provocations with military responses of its own. A military response can certainly feel more cathartic than just criticizing North Korea with words. But what do we get out of the vicious cycle of escalating military responses between the two Koreas? Does the Yoon Suk Yeol government really want to go to war?
The Yoon administration is talking about the positive cycle of denuclearization and improved inter-Korean relations, but the reality is that we are instead experiencing a vicious cycle of steadily intensifying security competition. Ultimately, President Yoon’s denuclearization strategy is a non-strategy. Instead, the same way that the North uses nuclear weapons to threaten the Korean people, President Yoon uses the threat of nuclear weapons as a tool to incite and promote.
We cannot spend the next four years like this
The Yoon Suk Yeol government is wasting the space and time it could be using to lead the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Can peace on the Korean Peninsula be achieved by solely focusing on the Korea-U.S. alliance while excluding China? I believe that cooperation between the US and China is essential for peace on the Korean Peninsula. At the very least, when the US and China work together, peace on the Korean Peninsula has progressed, and I believe this will continue to hold true.
The South Korean government should closely involve the U.S. and China in proposing peace on the peninsula. If necessary, we may also need to boldly implement our former inter-Korean agreements. In addition, the U.S. should respond proactively to normalizing relations with North Korea, while China needs to help rebuild multilateral negotiations on the Korean Peninsula. Then, we might bring North Korea to the dialogue table.
We can’t spend the next four years standing on thin ice and watching as the two Koreas launch missiles at each other and count the days between nuclear tests. The experts, activists, and peace-protecting citizens who are aware of the severity of our current situation, each and every one of them must make themselves heard.
*IL-Young Jeong is a research professor at Sogang University in Seoul. His key research interests include North Korea's social control system, inter-Korean relations, and peace on the Korean Peninsula.
*This article is a column published in OhmyNews. http://omn.kr/21aq5
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