The Korean Peninsula has fallen into a game of chicken without any guard rails

 

*Foreign tourists looking at North Korea from the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). ⓒiStock

 

Il Young Jeong

Research Professor_Institute of Social Sciences_Sogang University

The cycle of North Korea's armed provocations and the ROK-US alliance's unyielding responses continues to repeat on the Korean peninsula. With both sides unwilling to back down, their confrontations have rocked the peninsula.

There are several reasons that lead me to believe that the current Korean Peninsula is closer to possibility of an armed clash than any other time since the Korean War. Allow me to explain.

 

1. North Korea isn’t using armed provocation as a negotiation tactic.

In the past, North Korea's armed provocations were generally interpreted as "for the purpose of gaining an upper hand in negotiations". When a new administration was established in the U.S. or South Korea or multilateral negotiations had fallen into a lull, North Korea often used armed provocations to put pressure on their counterparts in an attempt to take the lead in negotiations. In other words, North Korea’s preferred strategy was ‘brinksmanship.’

However, North Korea is no longer considering participating in negotiations. While the June 2019 US-ROK-DPRK meeting at Panmunjom seemed to revive hopes of continued talks following the failed Hanoi summit in February that year, the June meeting proved to be the end of dialogue with the North. Since then, the North has refused any dialogue with either the US or South Korea.

Why is North Korea refusing to negotiate? So far, North Korea has sought a security guarantee from the United States. However, the regime has since opted instead to guarantee its own survival through nuclear weapons. Ultimately, North Korea's provocations will continue until the regime proves that it can carry out a preemptive strike the U.S. mainland with a miniaturized nuclear weapon equipped ICBM.

 

2. Effective sanctions against North Korea have reached their limit

After North Korea conducted three nuclear tests in 2016 and 2017, the international community implemented strong economic sanctions against North Korea, centering on the UN Security Council. On top of that, the COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020 effectively resulted in a near-perfect (self-imposed) blockade of North Korea.

The reason why international sanctions against North Korea were effective was that South Korea, China, and Russia all actively participated in the sanctions regime. However, cracks have started to form in the once strong sanctions alliance. The growing strategic competition between the US and China is making cooperation between the two countries difficult on the Korean Peninsula. At the same time, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has also led to US sanctions against Russia.

North Korea fired three intercontinental ballistic missiles Last year and was referred to the U.N. Security Council, but China and Russia blocked any further sanctions. In the end, with China and Russia placing responsibility for the Korean Peninsula issue on the US, it seems highly unlikely that the U.N. Security Council will be able to adopt any sanctions against North Korea even if the country conducts a seventh nuclear test.

Moreover, North Korea has so far endured five years of isolation since December 2017 (UN Resolution 2397), when the current sanctions against North Korea began. This only goes to show that North Korea will not easily surrender under the force of sanctions.

 

3. South Korea and the United States are not looking to avoid a fight

Currently, there is no exit or mediator to facilitate an escape from this charged atmosphere. Even the South Korean government, which sought dialogue when the military confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea intensified, is now countering the North’s provocations with strong military measures of its own. Both South Korea and the US are responding to North Korea's provocations head-on with increased military power.

Recently, the R.O.K.-U.S. alliance resumed large-scale joint landing exercises for the first time in five years, including the Royal Marines. North Korea is also responding by launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

China, which has led multilateral discussions on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in the past, is also keeping an eye on the situation but is stuck in an awkward position unable to act. China is in a situation where it can neither support nor criticize either side. China will not want the North Korean nuclear issue to snowball into a U.S.-China conflict of any kind.

 

We need a mediator or messenger of peace

As I write this, I realize that there has never been a time in my career when it has been more difficult for me to come up with a solution for the current situation. The Korean Peninsula is currently under an armistice. This system is imperfect. In particular, armed clashes can occur at any time in the West Sea or at the armistice line, as they often do whenever inter-Korean relations deteriorate. It bears remembering that Seoul – home to ten million Koreans – lies just 60 kilometers from that armistice line.

This confrontation between the South and the North, with no exit in sight, has turned into a game of chicken. It could very well bring about irreversible catastrophe. I think only possible answer for the present predicament is 'civil society'.

But, unfortunately, the influence of the state has expanded in the COVID-19 era, and civil society is shrinking. Nevertheless, we must use the power of democracy to calm the government, which exercises exclusive control over inter-Korean relations, and demand solutions for peace on the Korean Peninsula.

Under the current circumstances, solidarity and support from the international community will be essential to creating peace on the Korean Peninsula. We will likely need to push for third-party mediators to visit North Korea to mediate the conflict, as the late former US President Carter did in the past. In this sense, Pope Francis' visit to North Korea would be more welcome than ever.

 

*IL-Young Jeong is a research professor at Sogang University in Seoul. His key research interests include North Korea's social control system, inter-Korean relations, and peace on the Korean Peninsula.

*This article is a column published in OhmyNews. http://omn.kr/21i4q