Skip to main content

The Korean Peninsula has fallen into a game of chicken without any guard rails

 

*Foreign tourists looking at North Korea from the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). iStock

 

Il Young Jeong

Research Professor_Institute of Social Sciences_Sogang University


The cycle of North Korea's armed provocations and the ROK-US alliance's unyielding responses continues to repeat on the Korean peninsula. With both sides unwilling to back down, their confrontations have rocked the peninsula.

There are several reasons that lead me to believe that the current Korean Peninsula is closer to possibility of an armed clash than any other time since the Korean War. Allow me to explain.

 

1. North Korea isn’t using armed provocation as a negotiation tactic.

In the past, North Korea's armed provocations were generally interpreted as "for the purpose of gaining an upper hand in negotiations". When a new administration was established in the U.S. or South Korea or multilateral negotiations had fallen into a lull, North Korea often used armed provocations to put pressure on their counterparts in an attempt to take the lead in negotiations. In other words, North Korea’s preferred strategy was ‘brinksmanship.’

However, North Korea is no longer considering participating in negotiations. While the June 2019 US-ROK-DPRK meeting at Panmunjom seemed to revive hopes of continued talks following the failed Hanoi summit in February that year, the June meeting proved to be the end of dialogue with the North. Since then, the North has refused any dialogue with either the US or South Korea.

Why is North Korea refusing to negotiate? So far, North Korea has sought a security guarantee from the United States. However, the regime has since opted instead to guarantee its own survival through nuclear weapons. Ultimately, North Korea's provocations will continue until the regime proves that it can carry out a preemptive strike the U.S. mainland with a miniaturized nuclear weapon equipped ICBM.

 

2. Effective sanctions against North Korea have reached their limit

After North Korea conducted three nuclear tests in 2016 and 2017, the international community implemented strong economic sanctions against North Korea, centering on the UN Security Council. On top of that, the COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020 effectively resulted in a near-perfect (self-imposed) blockade of North Korea.

The reason why international sanctions against North Korea were effective was that South Korea, China, and Russia all actively participated in the sanctions regime. However, cracks have started to form in the once strong sanctions alliance. The growing strategic competition between the US and China is making cooperation between the two countries difficult on the Korean Peninsula. At the same time, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has also led to US sanctions against Russia.

North Korea fired three intercontinental ballistic missiles Last year and was referred to the U.N. Security Council, but China and Russia blocked any further sanctions. In the end, with China and Russia placing responsibility for the Korean Peninsula issue on the US, it seems highly unlikely that the U.N. Security Council will be able to adopt any sanctions against North Korea even if the country conducts a seventh nuclear test.

Moreover, North Korea has so far endured five years of isolation since December 2017 (UN Resolution 2397), when the current sanctions against North Korea began. This only goes to show that North Korea will not easily surrender under the force of sanctions.

 

3. South Korea and the United States are not looking to avoid a fight

Currently, there is no exit or mediator to facilitate an escape from this charged atmosphere. Even the South Korean government, which sought dialogue when the military confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea intensified, is now countering the North’s provocations with strong military measures of its own. Both South Korea and the US are responding to North Korea's provocations head-on with increased military power.

Recently, the R.O.K.-U.S. alliance resumed large-scale joint landing exercises for the first time in five years, including the Royal Marines. North Korea is also responding by launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

China, which has led multilateral discussions on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in the past, is also keeping an eye on the situation but is stuck in an awkward position unable to act. China is in a situation where it can neither support nor criticize either side. China will not want the North Korean nuclear issue to snowball into a U.S.-China conflict of any kind.

 

We need a mediator or messenger of peace

As I write this, I realize that there has never been a time in my career when it has been more difficult for me to come up with a solution for the current situation. The Korean Peninsula is currently under an armistice. This system is imperfect. In particular, armed clashes can occur at any time in the West Sea or at the armistice line, as they often do whenever inter-Korean relations deteriorate. It bears remembering that Seoul home to ten million Koreans lies just 60 kilometers from that armistice line.

This confrontation between the South and the North, with no exit in sight, has turned into a game of chicken. It could very well bring about irreversible catastrophe. I think only possible answer for the present predicament is 'civil society'.

But, unfortunately, the influence of the state has expanded in the COVID-19 era, and civil society is shrinking. Nevertheless, we must use the power of democracy to calm the government, which exercises exclusive control over inter-Korean relations, and demand solutions for peace on the Korean Peninsula.

Under the current circumstances, solidarity and support from the international community will be essential to creating peace on the Korean Peninsula. We will likely need to push for third-party mediators to visit North Korea to mediate the conflict, as the late former US President Carter did in the past. In this sense, Pope Francis' visit to North Korea would be more welcome than ever.

 

*IL-Young Jeong is a research professor at Sogang University in Seoul. His key research interests include North Korea's social control system, inter-Korean relations, and peace on the Korean Peninsula.

*This article is a column published in OhmyNews. http://omn.kr/21i4q

 

 

Comments

Best click

Interpreting Kim Jong-un's Statement on the 'Hostile Two-State Relationship' Regarding Inter-Korean Relations

  *South and North Beyond the Fence of the Demilitarized Zone.  @iStock   Il Young Jeong Research Professor_Institute of Social Science_Sogang University Kim Jong-un's statement on the 'hostile two-state relationship' regarding inter-Korean relations is causing controversy. Starting from the end of last year, Kim Jong-un's remarks on the "hostile two states" have shaken not only the academic community but also the political sphere and civil society in South Korea. The unfortunate aspect is that some experts have hastily defined the 'two-state system' on the Korean Peninsula as an irreversible reality and begun to seek alternatives. I believe that we must be cautious of hasty judgments because Kim Jong-un's "hostile two states" argument differs from the process of discourse formation previously shown by North Korea. In this context, I intend to analyze Kim Jong-un's two-state theory and argue that his discourse remains incomplete. Kim ...

How Can We Heal the Wounds of Division in the Inter-Korean Borderlands?

  * President Lee Jae-myung delivers remarks at the National Planning Committee’s public reporting session. ⓒ Office of the President Il Young Jeong Senior Research Fellow_Institute of Social Science_Sogang University In July 1953, the Korean War reached not an end, but a suspension through the signing of the Armistice Agreement. As a result, the two Koreas established the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), extending two kilometers from the Military Demarcation Line on both sides. The areas adjacent to the DMZ, referred to as the border region, encompass 15 cities and counties across Gyeonggi-do, Gangwon-do, and Incheon Metropolitan City. These border communities have long borne the frontline pain of division, directly experiencing the consequences of strained inter-Korean relations. During the 21st presidential election, President Lee Jae-myung emphasized the need for “special compensation for special sacrifices” made by border residents. Such recognition is not only justified but overdue,...

Two States on the Korean Peninsula: Rethinking Inter-Korean Relations

  * In August 1945, despite the joy of liberation, the Korean Peninsula was divided by the great powers into North and South along the 38th parallel. ,  @IL Young Jeong Il Young Jeong Senior Research Fellow_Institute of Social Science_Sogang University On August 15, President Lee Jae-myung, in his address marking the 80th anniversary of Korea’s Liberation, stated that “the South and the North are in a special relationship in which both sides should respect and recognize each other’s systems, while pursuing peaceful unification.” He further emphasized that “the South respects the current system in the North, will not seek any form of unification by absorption, and has no intention of engaging in hostile acts.” In relation to this, on August 13, the National Policy Planning Committee, which finalized the state agenda of the Lee administration, proposed the task of “redefining inter-Korean relations on the basis of reconciliation and cooperation and institutionalizing peaceful co...